The hottest Shanghai rubber market funds transferr

2022-08-23
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Although under the favorable background of tight supply-demand relationship in the international and domestic rubber market, the scale of the deposited funds in the Shanghai rubber market once expanded to more than 200000 hands, which is the largest scale since the listing of Shanghai rubber market for many years, and the inventory is also at the low level of 10000 to 20000 tons in the medium and long term history. However, from the comprehensive analysis of various factors, it is not difficult to speculate that although the Shanghai Jiaotong futures market may still maintain a high regional fluctuation trend, the possibility of ru809 multi-party main forces to undertake the real offer on a large scale by virtue of their financial strength is gradually shrinking

at present, the climate in Southeast Asia and Hainan Yunnan is becoming more and more suitable. The tapping volume generally enters the peak season of tapping in the middle of the year. The supply of natural rubber is slowly increasing to a larger scale in the middle of the year, and the pressure on spot is becoming heavier. The production of the two major agricultural reclamation enterprises in Hainan and Yunnan in China was reduced by about 60000 tons due to early disasters, but it can still be made up by expanding the import scale. From January to June, China's imports of natural rubber (26610, -640.00, -2.35%, bar) increased by 16.4% year-on-year to 830000 tons, not including the import scale of composite rubber. It can be seen that the international and domestic supply of natural rubber is relatively stable, and the supply tension is gradually weakening due to the peak supply season

in terms of consumption, the sales volume of passenger cars nationwide fell by 1.3% month on month in June, which is 2. 5% of that of domestic passenger cars The selection of fuses and circuit breakers continued to decline for the third month. At the same time, the automobile industry is under the dual pressure of the price rise of upstream raw materials and the price reduction of downstream consumer terminals, and domestic cars may also be subject to luxury tax. Coupled with the impact of high oil prices, macro-control, environmental protection and other factors, the automotive market has become increasingly depressed

the spot price of natural rubber at home and abroad remained stable. The spot price of No. 3 cigarette glue and No. 20 standard glue in the international rubber market fluctuated in the region of 330 to 340 cents/kg and 320 to 330 cents/kg respectively, without any upward breakthrough. The spot price of rubber in the domestic qiongdian production area was limited to the region of 27300 to 27400 yuan. The loss of ru808, the recent contract of Shanghai rubber, was more than 1.5% of the price, It can be seen that the international and domestic spot rubber prices are gradually restraining Shanghai Rubber upward, and the noise of the machine is also very small and weakened

according to the display of Shanghai Jiao stock exchange, if it is unqualified, it will display the red word "unqualified" and send out an alarm. The risk of heavy position confrontation of Shanghai Jiao stock exchange is gradually being resolved. The position of Shanghai Jiao stock exchange has been reduced from the historical maximum of more than 206000 hands on July 7 to more than 190000 hands at present, including more than 187000 hands on July 14; The position of ru809 in the main contract has been reduced from more than 160000 hands to more than 110000 hands, and the position of ru811 in the forward contract has been expanded to more than 60000 hands. Obviously, the position of ru809 has gradually entered a downward trend due to the movement of the deposited funds in the market to the far month contract. At the same time, the inventory of Shanghai Rubber and the number of registered warehouse receipts both increased for three consecutive weeks, from 16845 tons and 12020 tons on June 20 to 22395 tons and 15730 tons on July 11, with an increase of 5550 tons and 3710 tons respectively, reflecting that the relationship between the futures price of Shanghai rubber and the spot price of Hainan Yunnan production area has changed from the previous discount to the premium, resulting in the real market pressure from decrease to increase, which has a direct suppressive effect on the trend of Shanghai rubber

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